Coalition to release ‘materially better, in double digits’ budget costings

The Coalition is making a last-minute claim for the mantle of superior economic management with a promise its deficits would be at least $10 billion smaller than under Labor over the next four years.

Despite an election campaign in which both sides have downplayed or left silent questions over how they would address longer-term budget repair, the Coalition will claim its plan would trim $40 billion of gross debt in 2028/29 from the government’s $1.22 trillion prediction.

It’s understood the budget bottom line will be “materially better”, according to a Coalition source, boosted by a narrowing of deficits over the forwards in the “low double digits”.

That headline promise compares to Labor’s forecast deficits over four years of about $150 billion.

Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor will release details of the costings on Thursday.

“Labor has delivered the longest per-capita recession on record and the biggest collapse in living standards in the developed world,” he will say.

“That’s not bad luck, that’s bad management.

“After raking in almost $400 billion in extra revenue, Labor chose to splurge instead of save, leaving Australians more exposed to the next economic shock.

“We will rebuild the nation’s fiscal buffers, reduce debt, and begin budget repair because that’s what economic responsibility looks like.”

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Coalition to target more than $100 billion of Labor spends

In the lead-up to and during the campaign, Mr Dutton promised at least $48 billion in extra spending for defence, fuel excise relief, a temporary low and middle income tax offset, and Medicare bulk billing.

Offsetting those promised costs, the Coalition has said it would target more than $100 billion in Labor spending and so-called “off-budget” debt-funded investments for electricity transmission and housing, in addition to public service cuts and dumping Labor’s student debt relief plans.

The opposition’s full costings will come just days after one of the world’s top ratings agencies warned both sides of politics that without changes to spending or tax plans, Australia’s coveted AAA credit rating could be threatened by a sudden collapse in commodity prices or other setbacks.

Mr Taylor said on Wednesday that he is “solving for two budgets”.

One is for households, he said, and their need for support after being “absolutely wrecked” by Treasurer Jim Chalmers. The second is the government budget, which he said “has been wrecked again by a treasurer who doesn’t understand the basics of how an economy works and how to manage a government budget”.

Labor — which released its costings in the 2022 election on the Thursday before election day — has been challenging the Coalition this week to “come clean” over how it plans to fund Mr Dutton’s signature nuclear power plan and where it will find the savings.

The Coalition’s most expensive commitments include a $21 billion boost to military spending over the next four years, a $1,200 tax offset at a cost of $10 billion, and a 25-cent-a-litre fuel excise cut wiping $6 billion from the budget.

Making mortgages tax deductible will cost an additional $1.6 billion, while the Coalition’s lunch deductions for business owners will cost $243 million.

The Coalition is also expected to claim that the budget will be in better shape under its watch because productivity growth will improve.

Labor on Monday announced costings showing it had found more than $6 billion in savings via reduced reliance on consulting firms, helping offset around $10 billion in election campaign announcements. The $4 billion difference was already accounted for in the budget.

“When the Coalition finally gets around to releasing its costings, keep an eye out for some dodgy assumptions around productivity, pumping up their numbers,” Mr Chalmers said on Wednesday.

“Keep an eye out remembering that David Littleproud said they’ll start building nuclear reactors the day after they are elected.

“The reason they haven’t released their costings yet is because they don’t want to come clean on the savage cuts that they will need to make to pay for their nuclear reactors.”

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